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Three weeks from today, on October 25, the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will host their annual Singularity Summit. For all their futuristic talk and obvious intelligence, though, I'm afraid that this crowd is actually completely missing the boat—a singularity is very likely to happen right under their noses, before they even recognize it.
Not because I doubt that AGI is going to happen, mind you, or even that their timelines are too optimistic. "Within a few decades from now" doesn't seem unrealistic to me, in light of all the same trends they cite in support of their prediction: exponentially improving computational power; and of scientific knowledge, including in particular in the fields of biology and neuroscience. It does seem to me it's only a matter of time before, if not "pure" AGI, then at least either uploading, and/or the cyborg approach to super-human intelligence, will become a reality.