End of War?: Explaining 15 Years of Diminishing Violence, Gregg Easterbrook,
The New Republic, 05.24.2005
[JS] Excellent coverage of a worldwide trend that seems a direct result of our increasingly interdependent, media-saturated environment. Synopsizes the recent findings of Monty Marshall of George Mason University and Ted Robert Gurr of the University of Maryland. Unfortunately, TNR doesn't have an option for you to buy this without a subscription, but you can read the first paragraph. Fortunately, another recent piece, "Warfare Waning Across the World," by David Sands, Washington Times, 06.27.2005, synopses the same findings and is freely available.
In fact, there are a host of developmental processes we can statistically predict today with increasing accuracy given past history, such as more globalization, higher GDP's and per capita incomes, more democracy, transparency, less warfare, faster and smarter computers, etc. ASF believes futurists need to be making that special class of things much more obvious to the general public, and we will do our part in coming years to advocate for statistically-backed prediction as a core futurist methodology. Thanks to Jerry Paffendorf for the link.